The Chinese military wound down a series of historic drills around the coast of Taiwan on Sunday (Aug 7), but the geopolitical tension triggered by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island continues.
The unprecedented military exercises – launched in response to a visit that China regards as a major breach of its sovereignty – have broken the tacit rules observed by armed forces on both sides of the strait for decades and set precedents that, if repeated, could severely squeeze Taiwan’s defence space.
Beijing said the war games had successfully shown its capability to use advanced combined arms to breach Taiwan’s defences and deter foreign interference.
Beijing did not formally announce an end to its military drills – which it said would last until noon on Sunday – although Taiwan’s transport ministry told airlines to gradually resume flights near the six designated exercise zones after that time, indicating that the military action had stopped.
Taiwan’s defence ministry has declined to confirm that the exercises had finished. Taiwanese media quoted the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theatre Command as saying exercises had continued as planned around Taiwan’s coastline.
The Eastern Theatre Command on Sunday said “several strategic bomber groups had crossed the Taiwan Strait from the north and the south simultaneously”. In video footage released by the command, an H-6K strategic bomber can be seen escorted by fighter jets approaching an unspecified coastline.
The H-6K is designed for long-range attacks and is capable of attacking carrier battle groups and boasts nuclear strike capability.
The Taiwanese ministry of defence said as of 5pm, it detected 66 flights by PLA warplanes near Taiwan, of which 12 crossed the median line. There were also 14 mainland warships taking part in the Sunday drills.
Before winding down the exercises, the People’s Liberation Army announced it would conduct month-long live-fire drills in the Bohai Sea and south of the Yellow Sea on Saturday. Entry to the area is banned during that time.
These areas are close to the US military bases in Japan that could provide critical support to Taiwan in the event of conflict with the Chinese mainland.
In response to the mainland exercises, the Taiwanese military said it would stage two live-fire artillery drills this week in southern Taiwan to test its combat readiness.
The US 7th Fleet also plans to send more aircraft and warships through the Taiwan Strait in the coming weeks to respond to Beijing’s war games, the American military newspaper Star and Stripes reported.
The USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group was told by the White House last week to remain in the region to “monitor the situation”.
Rear Admiral Michael Donnelly, commander of the carrier strike group, said the navy would not back away from its regular operations in the Western Pacific despite heightened tensions or be “dissuaded, bullied or forced” by rivals like China, the report said.
The 7th Fleet has sent an average of one destroyer a month through the Taiwan Strait this year.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi over the weekend warned Washington not to “stir up a bigger crisis”.
Despite the rising tension, most regional observers believe a direct conflict over Taiwan is unlikely .
Beijing has suspended military dialogues with the US in protest at Pelosi’s “provocative” visit.
But Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University, said: “Confrontation will
On the diplomatic front, Beijing’s war of words with the US and its allies over Taiwan is set to continue.
The island’s ministry of foreign affairs announced that Lithuanian deputy transport minister Agne Vaiciukeviciute would lead an 11-member delegation on a five-day visit to the island starting on Sunday.
This will again provoke Beijing, which sees such visits as a provocation and an attempt to embolden pro-independence forces in Taiwan. Lithuania had previously angered Beijing by allowing a de facto embassy named the Taiwanese Representative Office to open in Vilnius.
Diplomatic observers believe the visit by the Lithuanians will not trigger the same kind of reaction as Pelosi’s visit, but warned that it could complicate China’s relationship with the European Union.
China announced unspecific sanctions against Pelosi and her family after her visit, and Igor Szpotakowski, head of the research department at the Chinese Law Association in Poland and Yenching Scholar at Peking University, said he expected some sanctions would be imposed on Lithuanian organisations and individuals.
Michele Geraci, former undersecretary of state at the Italian ministry of economic development, said the Lithuanians would face some retaliation, but did not expect there to be any impact on the overall relationship between China and the EU.
But Wang Yiwei, Jean Monnet professor and director of the Centre for European Union Studies at Renmin University, was more pessimistic, saying the Lithuanian visit had “hijacked the China-EU relationship”.
“Lithuania wants to take advantage of the situation by visiting Taiwan. Other countries may also do the same, for example, the United Kingdom. China has to stop that and halt the spread of the Pelosi effect.”
This article was first published in Asia One . All contents and images are copyright to their respective owners and sources.
